Economic and Political Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa
While almost every economy in the Middle East and North Africa region is projected to accelerate in 2011-2012, significant downside risks to this forecast remain. […]
Emerging Economies
2011 Global Economic Outlook: The Euro Crisis, Currency Tensions, and Recovery
As fears rise over currency clashes, policy makers must confront the challenges of a two-speed global economy where China and other emerging markets are surging ahead while Europe, the United States, and Japan face a number of serious economic concerns. […]
Who Will Gain from a Renminbi Revaluation?
Policy makers around the world who are pushing China to revalue its exchange rate should note that an appreciation of the renminbi—unless accompanied by an acceleration of China’s domestic demand—will be of little benefit to most economies. […]
How to Avoid a Currency War
Threats of a currency war hang in the air, but few countries have actually seen their exchange rate appreciate significantly. Major world economies should refocus on domestic policies before the rhetoric turns into reality. […]
The Global Rebalancing Mirage
Deficit countries are neglecting the needed—and more difficult—reforms at home and fueling protectionist sentiment abroad with their focus on external trade imbalances and their calls for major surplus economies to increase demand. […]
Will Developing Economies Help Sustain the Global Recovery?
Growth in emerging economies has slowed from torrid post-crisis rates, but remains high and will likely mitigate—but not fully compensate for—a sharp slowdown in advanced countries. […]
Paradigm Lost: The Euro in Crisis
The euro crisis is driven primarily by two elements – problematic sovereign debt in Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, and fragile European banks. While ballooning public debt may be the clearest manifestation of the euro crisis, its roots go much deeper. […]
Why Greece Has to Restructure Its Debt
Given the dual challenge of massive and rising debt and a loss of competitiveness now facing Greece, debt restructuring is necessary—but may not be sufficient—to restore economic growth. […]
Paradigm Lost: The Euro in Crisis
The Euro crisis, which strikes at the heart of the world’s largest trading block, no longer threatens just Europe. Economies around the globe are already being affected, and the worldwide recovery is at risk. […]
Managing Capital Flows in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis
Capital flows are rebounding to emerging economies, prompted by the strength and speed of their economic recovery. These flows could surge in coming years, perhaps setting the stage for the development of another large bubble in emerging markets. […]