Speaker: Uri Dadush
Originally published by the OCP Policy Center
Though economic forecasts over the last couple of years have been driven by hopeful sentiments, the actual numbers have proven to be disappointing, as they fall short of expectations. The aftereffects of the Lehman crisis, now over six years old, and of the sovereign crisis in Europe, have been systematically underestimated and continue to represent a pandemic in terms of economic growth. The focus on averages has also proven to be misleading, as disparities in growth have, and continue to, characterize the economic reality, leaving little to no room for wishful thinking. Though the negative repercussions persist, some significant areas of strength and economic healing have surfaced, such as the collapse of the oil prices that is mainly a result of the surging supply, as opposed to a falling demand. Within this understanding, the forecast for 2015 is moderate growth at best, much similarly to 2014, which sat in the lower end of the economic growth spectrum.
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